First majority president post-Marcos? Highs and lows forward of 2022 polls

That January 2022 is coming to an finish, for the extra politically-inclined within the Philippines, means just one factor – the marketing campaign interval is lastly drawing close to (February 8 for nationwide candidates and March 25 for native bets).

For the particularly data-driven, it additionally means the common launch of desire polls and a neater, publicly-available means to gauge the place candidates are and what they need to do forward of the Might 9 elections.

Though Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the son of the late dictator, loved a substantial lead within the December 2021 Pulse Asia electoral desire survey, the agency’s head Ronald Holmes stated it’s nonetheless too early to inform.

The youthful Marcos was best choice for 53% of respondents, trailed by Vice President Leni Robredo (20%) at a distant second. 

“That’s a chance that we will take a look at, however it might be a little bit harder to maintain this explicit desire. It actually is determined by how the marketing campaign would proceed. It additionally is determined by the problems every of those candidates are confronting and the way they’d reply to those points,” stated Holmes on Wednesday, January 19, in an episode of On the Marketing campaign Path

First majority president post-Marcos? Highs and lows ahead of 2022 polls

Rappler columnist John Nery had requested Holmes if it was potential for the nation to have its first majority-elected president within the post-Marcos years. 

“If the elections had been held at the moment, Marcos would have a majority win however we’ve seen…no matter is the lead, the share of the votes of the chief finally declines and is diminished as much as election day,” added Holmes. 

Former vp Jejomar Binay is all too aware of this state of affairs – he was the chief in early desire polls however noticed his numbers step by step decline up till election day. Rodrigo Duterte, then Davao mayor, gained the 2016 polls.

Choice surveys are a snapshot of a inhabitants’s sentiments throughout a selected timeframe. Within the case of the December 2021 Pulse Asia survey, the outcomes had been a snapshot of public preferences from December 6 to 11. 

To make certain, the Marcos camp isn’t letting its guard down.

A latest Rappler investigation uncovered the “early levels of a propaganda community” in favor of the late dictator’s son on a platform that he’s but to overcome: Twitter. 

“Twitter is likely one of the latest areas we’re exploring. For now, you possibly can already see indicators of a disinformation community. It’s already expressing traits…similar to the 2019 examine, what occurred on Fb, and even TikTok,” stated Dylan Salcedo of the Rappler forensics and analysis group. 

The Rappler group discovered {that a} bulk of tweets despatched out to assist Marcos throughout “Twitter events” had been made by accounts created solely in late 2021 – the identical month the previous senator introduced his bid for the presidency. 

“The Twitter get together included the hashtag ‘Laban Marcos’ and the phrase ‘The actual folks energy.’ It’s the identical messaging that makes an attempt to revise historical past – mainly, the narrative is that the Marcoses are the actual victims and the return to Malacanang is overdue. After they stated ‘actual folks energy,’ they’re throwing away no matter occurred through the 1986 Individuals Energy revolution. It’s the identical narrative that the Marcos disinformation community has been pushing on Fb,” stated Pauline Macaraeg from the identical Rappler group. 

The group additionally noticed the identical conduct within the aftermath of a report that claimed the Fee on Elections (Comelec) had been hacked.

“[Marcos supporters on Twitter] had been using on the problem and so they began placing the blame on different individuals who [haven’t been proven to be] concerned within the alleged hack. They had been using on the problem and spun it in a manner that make it match their narrative,” identified Gaby Baizas, additionally of the forensics and analysis group.

The narrative? That the Comelec is to not be trusted and that somebody – considered one of Marcos’ 2022 rivals, particularly – was by some means behind the so-called “hack.”

“It gave us one other factor to look into as a result of whereas the [alleged] Comelec hack has lots of gaps that should be examined extra, the best way that [Marcos] supporters had been benefiting from the problem was placing…none of [the hacking allegations have been] confirmed but, it’s not confirmed that there was a hack, it’s not confirmed that this particular person was behind so and so,” added Baizas.  

Why trouble with Twitter? The function social media is already taking part in within the lead-up to the Might 2022 elections can’t be overstated, identified the forensics and analysis group. 

“There are makes an attempt on-line to push false narratives, false claims in regards to the elections – possibly to sow mistrust within the democratic course of. Since Filipinos are prolific customers of social media, I believe that additionally impacts how disinformation would affect the elections in 2022,” added Macaraeg. –

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